Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Valuation & Scarcity Calculator

Wondering how Bitcoin's hard-coded supply scarcity directly drives its long-term market valuation?

Evaluate current circulating supply, annual issuance rates, stock-to-flow ratios, and projected theoretical price valuations.

⚠️ Educational model, not financial advice. The Stock-to-Flow model measures scarcity metrics; actual price action is heavily influenced by liquidity shifts, regulation, and macroeconomic demand.

Circulating Supply (BTC)

Block Subsidy (BTC)

Power Law Model Exponent

Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S2F)

120.43

Annual Inflation Rate (%)

0.83%

Theoretical Model Price ($)

$482,150.00

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Quantifying Monetary Scarcity: The Stock-to-Flow Framework

The **Stock-to-Flow (S2F)** ratio evaluates commodity scarcity by dividing existing stockpiles ("stock") by annual production issuance ("flow"). Historically utilized to assess monetary metals like gold and silver, S2F quantifies how many years of current production would be required to replicate existing global supply.

With Bitcoin, the programmatic halving mechanism cuts new block issuance by 50% every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). As annual inflation falls below 1%, Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow ratio surges beyond monetary gold (~62 S2F), establishing unprecedented digital scarcity. This **Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Valuation & Scarcity Calculator** evaluates real-time supply dynamics and computes theoretical price baselines.

Governing Mathematical Formulas

This simulator calculates scarcity and theoretical model valuation using standard power-law regression equations:

• Annual BTC Issuance (Flow): Flow = 144 Blocks/Day × 365 Days × Block Subsidy (BTC)
• Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S2F): S2F = Circulating Supply (Stock) / Annual Issuance (Flow)
• Annual Supply Inflation (%): Inflation Rate = (Flow / Stock) × 100 = 100 / S2F
• S2F Theoretical Valuation ($): Model Price = e^(-1.84) × (S2F)^Exponent

Worked Calculation Examples

Consider the default post-4th-halving parameter baselines loaded into this tool:

• Circulating Supply (Stock): ~19,780,000 BTC
• Block Subsidy: 3.125 BTC per block
• Model Exponent: 3.3 (Standard power-law slope)

Annual production equals 144 × 365 × 3.125 = 164,250 BTC/Year. Dividing stock (19,780,000) by flow (164,250) gives an S2F ratio of **120.43**, representing an annual inflation rate of **0.83%**. Applying the power-law regression formula yields a theoretical long-term model valuation baseline of **$482,150.00**.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What makes a high Stock-to-Flow ratio economically significant?

A high S2F ratio indicates low relative annual production compared to existing supply. This structural bottleneck prevents market supply from expanding rapidly during price spikes, sustaining asset scarcity over time.

2. How does Bitcoin's S2F ratio compare to Gold?

Gold has an estimated stock of ~200,000 tonnes and annual mining output of ~3,200 tonnes, giving an S2F ratio of approximately 62. Following the 4th Halving, Bitcoin's S2F ratio doubled to ~120+, surpassing gold as the scarcest monetary asset.

3. What are the main limitations of the Stock-to-Flow model?

The S2F model focuses solely on supply scarcity and ignores demand-side dynamics, broader macroeconomic liquidity, regulatory shifts, and unexpected black swan events.

4. Does the model account for lost or unspendable Bitcoin?

Standard S2F equations utilize total protocol issuance. Factoring in an estimated 3-4 million lost or permanently inaccessible coins increases the effective S2F ratio further by reducing liquid circulating stock.

5. Are these mathematical estimations calculated privately on my device?

Yes. All calculations execute locally in your browser using pure JavaScript. No parameters or custom inputs are ever saved or transmitted to external servers.

Last updated: October 2026