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Retirement Success Probability (Monte Carlo) Calculator

The Monte Carlo method stress-tests your retirement savings plan against thousands of possible market outcomes (good, bad, and average) to give you a **Success Probability**—the chance your money will last.

Plan Parameters

Starting Portfolio Value (Rs)

Initial Annual Withdrawal (Rs)

Retirement Duration (Years)

Expected Annual Inflation (%)

*Default Assumptions (based on a moderate risk portfolio with 60% Stocks / 40% Bonds): **Average Annual Return:** 7.0%, **Annual Volatility (Std Dev):** 10.0%

Portfolio Annual Return (%)

Portfolio Annual Volatility (%)

Simulation Results

0%

Retirement Plan Success Rate

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What Does the Success Rate Mean?

The success rate is the percentage of all simulated market paths in which your portfolio still had a balance greater than zero at the end of your retirement duration. For example, a 90% success rate means that out of 1,000 scenarios, your money lasted in 900 of them.

The Risk of Sequence of Returns

The great danger in retirement is the **Sequence of Returns Risk**. If a major market crash happens early in retirement, your portfolio takes a big hit just as you are making your largest withdrawals (in real dollars). The Monte Carlo method captures this risk by starting thousands of trials with random returns, simulating early negative returns, and showing you how likely you are to survive a worst-case scenario.

Experts often suggest aiming for a success rate of **85% to 95%**. If your score is low, consider reducing your initial withdrawal amount or increasing your portfolio's risk/return profile (which is a trade-off).

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